South Africa’s green hydrogen strategy: Challenges and opportunities

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Created: Thursday, 24 July 2025 07:10

Written by E. Matinde

Significant global efforts have been dedicated to mitigate the man-made impacts of climate change and environmental degradation. However, recent policy shifts by some of the major economic jurisdictions, such as the United States, to focus on prioritising domestic economic growth, potentially at the expense of climate change, and stricter environmental regulation is a major cause for concern. For example, the US’s policy changes to truncate the roll-out of electric vehicle incentives and subsidies, among other roll-backs on clean energy transition initiatives, will provide interim fiscal relief but may inadvertently undermine climate change mitigation measures in the long term. In addition, the emerging geoeconomic order and tariff regimes will also have a disproportionate impact on both the demand-side and supply-side of climate-neutral technology cooperation and financing mechanisms. Consequently, this will delay the deployment of nascent interventions required to reduce emissions from energy- and greenhouse gas intensive industries. Obviously, the impact is disproportionately high in critical but hard-to-abate industries such as cement clinker production, iron and steel manufacturing, and public transportation, of which their global CO2 emissions are estimated to be roughly 8%, 7-9%, and up to 14%, respectively.

Due to the high costs of technology development and complexity of integration into existing systems, global cooperation in the development and financing mechanisms for sustainable climate-friendly technologies, such as green hydrogen, carbon capture, and storage technologies, has immense benefits to mankind. Green hydrogen, in particular, is considered to be one of the most promising energy carriers with immense environmental benefits. According to the Green Hydrogen Organisation (https://gh2.org/what-green-hydrogen), green hydrogen is produced via an electrochemical process to split water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable sources of energy. Several technologies to produce green hydrogen at scale have been developed and/or are at different stages of development and commercialisation. However, each technology regime is characterised by its own inherent challenges and opportunities in terms of interoperability, efficiency, costs and availability. With substantial support from industry, policymakers and the public, the roll-out of green hydrogen technologies has been touted as a gamechanger, with massive global strategic efforts being deployed towards technology development and establishment of infrastructure and special economic zones, supported by the promulgation of targeted industrial policies as well as support with tax incentives and subsidies.

As part of the dual drive to attain both economic and energy sovereignty, South Africa launched an ambitious green hydrogen strategy to leverage the country’s abundant renewable energy resources, both for domestic use and for export. The Hydrogen Society Roadmap was launched in 2021 to support the implementation of the country’s green hydrogen economy, and its implementation is anchored on the attainment of four strategic outcomes, viz, (1) creating an export market for the country’s green hydrogen and allied products, (2) greening the power generation, (3) decarbonising the transportation and heavy industries and, (4) localising the green hydrogen supply chains. According to the Hydrogen Society Roadmap (https://gh2.org/countries/south-africa), the country aims to produce approximately 500,000 tonnes per annum of green hydrogen by 2030, achievable by 10 GW of electrolysis capacity in the Northern Cape special economic zones by 2030, and up to 15 GW by 2040. In addition, the Hydrogen Roadmap targets the deployment of 100 hydrogen-powered buses and trucks by 2025 and up to 500 buses and trucks by 2030, with the opportunity to create and sustain up to 30,000 jobs annually by 2040. According to a report by National Business Initiative (https://www.nbi.org.za/green-hydrogen-presents-the-opportunity-as-the-fuel-for-the-future/), South Africa has the potential to produce green hydrogen for USD1.60 per kg by 2030, one of the lowest costs worldwide. These ambitious energy transition targets are applaudable, despite the challenges to achieve them being the stated timelines and current technoeconomic landscape. In addition, there is an urgent need to revisit the assumptions used to formulate the stated impact targets, if one is to take into account the unprecedented number of bankruptcies by green hydrogen technology startups and established global companies due to inhibitive development costs and complexity of the associated systems and technologies.

Indeed, green hydrogen is going to be a game-changer due to its potential to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and drive innovations in sustainable technologies. However, it is evident that the suite of technologies to produce green hydrogen are emerging technologies, which are disproportionately prone to failure due to the high costs of electrolyser technologies, complexity of integration, and intermittency of renewable energy storage systems, among other challenges. Synergistic to bottlenecks from the complex technology systems is the valley of death faced by green hydrogen technologies due to misallocation of financing, and the “Lindy effects” arising from sunk costs and perceived performance of established fossil fuel-based technologies. Although the challenges in the roll-out of green hydrogen technologies is a global phenomenon, reliance on imported technologies, high cost, and availability of climate finance, further increases vulnerability for countries in the global south, South Africa included.

I had the privilege of listening to a keynote address by the Chairperson of SAIMM Limpopo Branch, Mr Steven Zulu, at the branch event held at the University of Limpopo earlier this month. In his opening address, Mr Zulu highlighted the need to develop sustainable technologies based on endogenous technology learning capabilities as a sovereign strategy to mitigate against perpetuation of external dependency, a phenomenon he referred to as “technology colonialism”. In particular, Mr Zulu highlighted some basic implementation strategies to attain technology sovereignty, such as building sustainable R&D and technology development skills. Furthermore, he emphasised the importance of developing home-grown technology alternatives, drive down technology costs, and unlock the ability to reverse engineer existing technologies to suit the domestic market requirements.

In conclusion, there is no doubt that green hydrogen can be a game-changer for South Africa and the region. However, the attainment thereof, together with the Green Hydrogen Roadmap impact targets, risk being wishful thinking unless collective efforts are channelled towards intensifying technology development initiatives to drive down costs and reduce dependency on imported technologies and components. Most importantly, open-minded approaches are required to take advantage of emerging geoeconomic dynamics, so as to establish genuine collaborations with all leading green hydrogen technology developers globally. As the SAIMM, we commit to continue supporting the dissemination of technical knowledge required to sustain the localisation of technology know-how in this highly contested domain.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

South Africa’s Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy: Challenges, opportunities and call to action

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Created: Thursday, 26 June 2025 06:36

Written by E. Matinde

The recent publication of the Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy marks a significant milestone for the minerals industry in South Africa. The Strategy outlines the country’s critical and strategic minerals and metals that are essential to modern industrial technologies, economic development, and employment creation. The timing of the strategy document is profound in that it comes at a time when there is strong convergence among all stakeholders on the need to intensify the local beneficiation of our minerals. By leveraging the unique and abundant reserves of critical and strategic minerals and metals such as platinum group metals, manganese, vanadium, chromium, and titanium, among others, South Africa has the potential to create and sustain a thriving industrial ecosystem capable of generating high value products and services. Most importantly, the strategy underscores commitments by the state to providing enablers and interventions aimed at increasing the levels of value-added processing of the mineral products. These include bold declarations towards improving the regulatory stability and regulatory flexibility, facilitating the establishment of local and regional beneficiation and manufacturing hubs, and addressing critical bottlenecks such as energy availability and public infrastructure readiness.

Holistic implementation of the strategy has immense and long lasting benefits to the country. The full implementation of the strategic objectives will not only create jobs and national wealth through export of value-added products and services, but will also increase the endogenous and sovereign capabilities in manufacturing and value-added services. The strategy positions South Africa as an integral hub for regional minerals beneficiation and market for value-added products and services, thereby unlocking potential for growth of new industries and drive the expansion and diversification of the manufacturing and services value chains. By placing particular emphasis on areas where the country can build strong competitive advantages, such as in the emerging clean energy technologies value chains, and placing emphasis on applied research, technology development, and innovation, South Africa can positions itself as a regional innovation hub with the capacity to drive technologies of the future.

There is no doubt that the strategy comes at a time of intense geopolitical tensions and economic disruptions. Increased competition for investments to fund new and existing mining projects, coupled with unstable economic conditions due to fluctuating commodity markets, necessitates the need for targeted government policy and fiscal support to de-risk investments in strategic beneficiation projects. Public-private partnerships thus become a critical factor to ensuring holistic investment and resource allocation decisions; prioritise the investments in high demand multi-disciplinary skills, and ensure the development and robustness of innovation systems. Obviously, the alignment of the strategy to the broader economic and fiscal imperatives, including the political will to drive economic transformation and reduce barriers to entry for SMEs and SMMEs, is a critical determinant of the successful implementation of the strategy. Building international partnerships to leverage shared competencies through bilateral technical exchange platforms, such as Horizon Europe, African Mining Vision, and other pan-African initiatives, is a crucial element for creating synergistic impact.

In conclusion, the publication of the Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy is a notable achievement for South Africa. For SAIMM and its stakeholders, the strategy provides a platform for more rigorous discussions and engagements through our conferences, webinars, and colloquia.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Engineers dividend and the African mine of the future

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Created: Tuesday, 27 May 2025 11:54

Written by E. Matinde

The mining industry has experienced massive metamorphic and irreversible structural changes in the recent past. In addition to the recent unpredictable geopolitical conditions, the major challenges affecting the actors in the mining industry are intricately shaped by structural constraints such as geological, technological, and market conditions. Complexity in the geometallurgical properties of the individual ore bodies, for example, is irreversibly shaped by the geological conditions that existed billions of years ago. The grade and mineralisation properties of the ore bodies also have a significant impact on the choice of mining and processing technologies adopted, the economics of production, and the location of the mining operations. In addition, the mining industry also continues to face operational pressures to cut costs and increase productivity, while simultaneously navigating other challenges such as competition for high end skills, and meeting increasingly strict governance requirements and stakeholder expectations.

Due to the nature of mining as a business, it is clear that these inherent challenges are here to stay, and thus, the future of the industry depends on the ability to learn and adapt. The first, and perhaps most important priority for any mining operation, would be to strengthen its operational and cashflow resilience to enable it to weather the obvious challenges, such as geopolitical disruptions and cyclical downturns. Second to strengthening the economic position, the focus of a future looking mining operation would be to elevate its social licence to operate, achieved mostly through long term investments in human capital and environmental, social, governance, and sustainability KPIs. In fact, investing in talent and leadership has been considered a key variable to building a sustainable mining operation, as the mine of the future will be highly automated and will require highly skilled personnel capable of operating sophisticated systems and technologies. Establishing and strengthening economic linkages with other sectors of the economy is also critical to building value chain resilience and mitigating against the cyclical impact of the commodity markets.

In my October 2024 article, I introduced a controversial and yet highly ambitious proposition that critical minerals can result in sustained technological and economic catch-up. My hypothesis still remains unchanged, and I am convinced that it is possible to utilise the vast experience in complex mining systems and technologies on the African continent to build a vibrant manufacturing economy capable of providing value-added products and services to the rest of the world. I also highlighted that the ability to catch up is driven by deliberate efforts to build value-add competencies. Traditionally, the number of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) skills active in the economy was used as a proxy measure of technological capabilities, however more recently, interesting terms such as ‘engineer dividend’ are being introduced to broadly describe the nature and quantum of STEM skills that are required to drive and sustain technological innovation.

Borrowing from investment economics, the term ‘engineer dividend’ was introduced in a recent Bloomberg article to refer to a phenomenon whereby countries with a large and diverse skilled engineering workforce naturally develop competitive advantage in areas leading to technological advancement and industrial development (Bloomberg, available at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-24/china-s-engineer-dividend-is-paying-off-big-time). Case in mind is China, which, according to Bloomberg, invested intensely in STEM education and managed to increase its number of engineers by close to 12 million in the period between 2000 and 2020. In this context, engineer dividend was described as an internal rate of return on investment in engineering competencies to create a concentrated community of experts and strong network of engineering skills capable of driving innovation in multiple fields. Although dependent on other factors to succeed, the high concentration of multidisciplinary and specialised engineering expertise fosters both competition and collaboration, leading to improved sector productivity and industrial competitiveness.

In conclusion, there is no doubt that resource-rich countries on the continent can leverage on the extensive experience in designing and operating complex mining systems and operations to build a robust manufacturing and value-added services economy. With all conditions remaining the same, would it be plausible to consider the ‘engineer dividend’ concept as a viable skills investment concept to derisk the future of African mining industry and, if so, which areas should we focus on?

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Legacy tailings and slag dumps: Turning challenges into opportunities

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Created: Thursday, 24 April 2025 05:38

Written by E. Matinde

As highlighted in some of my previous articles, the role of mining in the global economy cannot be underestimated. For centuries, the mining industry has contributed to the sustainable economic development of many countries. In fact, Max Plank, the father of quantum physics, is famously quoted to having said that ‘mining is not everything, but without mining there is nothing’. This century-old statement is still very relevant today, as all critical minerals and metals need to be mined, processed, and refined before they can be used in consumer goods, engineering equipment, and infrastructure. Unfortunately, the mining, processing, and refining of minerals and metals face its own environmental challenges. In particular, the various unit processes involved in the mining and recovery of valuable components from the run-of-mine ores generate large masses of waste materials, mostly in the form of chemically and mineralogically complex waste rock and tailings. Further downstream processes, such as those involved in the smelting and refining of metals and alloys, produce large volumes of wastes in the form of slags and fly ash. Regardless of the unit process producing them, these waste materials have common and overlapping characteristics in that their production is sometimes inevitable, they are produced in large volumes, and lastly, they tend to be chemically heterogenous and mineralogically complex.

Solid mine and metallurgical wastes (such as waste rock, tailings, slags, and ash) are collectively classified as mine residues. Due to the relatively low intrinsic monetary value, mine residues are normally disposed of in specially designed tailings facilities and slag ponds. Fortunately, the design of modern tailings storage and slag dump facilities is governed by various national legislations, global standards, and international best practices to minimise unintended impact on the environment and communities. Various industry standards and guidelines, such as the South African SANS 10286, provide guidance on the management of mine residue deposits and other forms of solid wastes. More recently, the global mining industry further reiterated its commitment to zero harm by voluntarily adopting the Global International Standards on Tailings Management (GISTM). The GISTM is a global standard that provides a common and standardised definition and best practices in the design, monitoring, and management of tailings facilities. The international standards and best practices require that active sites be continuously monitored throughout the lifecycle of the facility, an attribute that may not be applicable to legacy tailings and slag dump facilities.

For the purpose of this article, I would like to define legacy tailings and slags dumps as accumulated process residues emanating from the historical closure of mining sites and smelters long before the relevant standards and environmental legislation were promulgated and adopted. Both types of process residues have legacy ownership challenges, potentially due to multiple changes in ownership and/or the liquidation of known registered owners. This means that the management of the historical tailings and slag dump facilities then falls outside the active legislative mandates and best practice guidelines. Regardless of the process or commodity producing them, both legacy tailings and slag dump storage facilities have a number of common and overlapping characteristics in that: (a) they are man-made in nature and have potential to cause notable environmental impact from the accumulation of potentially toxic metal elements, (b) they are formed ex-situ and may have undergone physical, chemical, and/or thermal alteration over a period of time, an attribute that makes their long term geochemical behaviour unpredictable, (c) they form an emerging and irreversible component of the anthropocene, with the potential to permanently alter the natural environment and ecosystems, and lastly, (d) they both can play significant roles in the circular economy as sustainable sources of minerals through deliberate remining and other reclaiming activities.

The aforementioned attributes create both challenges and opportunities. Firstly, not much data is published in open access literature to highlight the long-term geochemical behaviour and impact of legacy mine residues. Secondly, in the absence of real-time monitoring data, it may be difficult to understand the long-term geochemical impact of these legacy facilities. Because of the legacy and ownerless nature of some of the storage facilities, the affected sites may fail to benefit from improvements in monitoring technologies and best practices. However, legacy tailings and slag dumps can play a significant role in the sustainable supply of critical raw materials. By taking a ‘waste-to-resources’ approach, legacy mine residues have the capacity to revitalise the economies of affected communities through their reclamation for use in transversal industries.

The production and accumulation of mine residues is inevitable if humanity is to continue enjoying the same level of affluence and economic development. It is a fact that some mining and smelter sites may close as a result of unavoidable factors such economic disruptions, technoeconomic cycles (such as the potential impact of clean energy transition on coal mining), and resource depletion. This means that there is a need for future thinking to mitigate the post closure economic and environmental impact of tailings and slag dumps. This pragmatic approach is not new to the mining industry and academia, and in fact, was discussed in detail during the recently concluded SAIMM Mine Closure Conference 2025. The upcoming SAIMM Tailings Conference 2026 also provides an important platform to further debate some of these pertinent issues. In addition, I also would like to draw attention to a very impactful paper by Prof. Isabelle Demers (available at https://doi.org/10.1017/mcl.2024.4).

Dealing with environmental issues emanating from legacy mine residues is not trivial. Rather, it is a complicated endeavour that requires a multi-disciplinary approach by all stakeholders. In conclusion, I would like to remind all policy makers, geotechnical engineers, geochemists, hydrogeologists, process engineers, pyrometallurgists, biologists, archaeometallurgists, among others, that the call for abstracts for the SAIMM Tailings Conference 2026 closes on the 1st of July 2025. Please register to attend the conference so that we can collectively discuss these issues.
https://www.saimm.co.za/saimm-events/upcoming-events/tailings-2026-conference

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Navigating the complexity of retrenchments and layoffs in the mining industry: In search of a collective ubuntu-based approach

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Created: Thursday, 03 April 2025 05:27

Written by E. Matinde

The mining industry is an integral part of the South African economy. According to the Minerals Council of South Africa, the mining industry contributed around 425 billion rands (or 6.2%) to the country’s GDP in 2023. In the same period, the mining industry also employed over 470,000 people, thereby contributing significantly to the socioeconomic wellbeing of mining and nearby communities. More details on the most recent statistics are available here: https://www.mineralscouncil.org.za/reports/2023/. As has been in the past, the mining industry remains a cornerstone and plays an inseparable role in the economy through multiplier contributions, such as investing in social projects and infrastructure, training and skills development, health and education.

The cyclical nature of mining sector profitability presents unprecedent challenges to the long term stability of the industry. Despite the net-positive impact of the clean energy transition on some commodities, domestic and global headwinds such as capital scarcity, declining commodity prices, disruptive technologies, rising operating costs, and harsh domestic economic conditions, among others, continue to present long-term viability challenges to most mining operations in the mining sector. These industry headwinds naturally affect the mining sector differently, with some operations being affected more adversely than others. The platinum group metal (PGM) industry, for example, was severely impacted by the long-term decline in commodity basket prices for PGMs in the global markets, mostly driven by the growing concerns about the demand disruption from electrical vehicles.

In order to survive these headwinds, the mining industry finds itself with the need to cut costs and implement drastic restructuring strategies. The recent cost cutting and restructuring measures implemented by some companies in the South African mining industry naturally resulted in the significant reduction in the workforce through retrenchments and layoffs. Within the last two years, notable retrenchments and layoffs were observed across the various commodities in the sector, with the PGM sector being the most affected. Being one of the largest employers within the South African mining industry, employing over 38% of the total mining workforce in 2023, any impact on the PGM industry will have an oversized weighted impact on the overall employment statistics and perception of the mining sector. Regrettably, retrenchments and layoffs are not common to the mining sector alone, but are also being experienced across the other core segments of the economy. Recent public reports attest to this painful reality in the manufacturing sector as well.

Retrenchments and layoffs can be viewed as an inevitable consequence of every bad business cycle. While retrenchments and layoffs might seem inhumane, they can sometimes be necessary, albeit drastic, measures to ensure the survival of the company during economic downturns. This means that implementing cost reduction and restructuring decisions can sometimes be a matter of survival and a necessary step to ensure long-term business continuity. However, if managed properly and conducted in good faith, retrenchments and layoffs can result in improved efficiency and profitability growth in the long term, leading to future protection of jobs and improvement in employee welfare.

Retrenchments and layoffs represent some of the most challenging and delicate decisions any organisation can make. Nonetheless, retrenchments and layoffs should be used as a last resort and should not be used as a tool to solve challenges emanating from temporary economic shifts, Trump-like geoeconomic disruptions, and poor strategic decisions by management. Due to the irreversible damage to organisational brand and the emotional and socioeconomic wellbeing of employees and affected communities, there is a strategic need to balance humanity over short-term profits. Although easier said than done, a more feasible approach would be to focus on cutting costs through improving operational efficiency and business model innovation, rather than arbitrarily reducing the employee headcount. In the worst case scenario, it is also important to explore alternative and more humane strategies to reducing headcount, such as natural attrition, voluntary separation, and early retirement, among others. Open communication and taking collective responsibility beyond what are mandated by national labour laws and company policies are crucial requirements to navigating the complexity and impact associated with a retrenchment process.

Job loss is always an emotive process. In addition to the usual feelings of anger, resentment, and sense of inadequacy, the feelings associated with a lack of job security often leads to the poor physical and mental health of affected individuals and their families. Since the impact of retrenchments and layoffs extend beyond the affected employees to their families and communities, there is a need for a collective approach to explore viable ‘beyond the fence’ support to assist affected individuals and communities to cope with the changes and losses. For example, collaborative efforts involving the state institutions, mining companies and their suppliers, industry bodies, organised labour, communities and local municipalities, among others, can have significant impact in assisting the affected individuals through community based social and enterprise development projects. It is also important to retain an active register of affected employees and giving them first preference in case of a successful turnaround.

A people oriented strategy is also required to support those affected by restructuring processes leading to a reduction in the workforce. For example, a longer term view on career transition support, through reskilling and multi-skilling the individuals who are at risk to acquire artisanry, technical and enterprise skills, can help to mitigate the socioeconomic impact of retrenchments and layoffs. Reskilling the workforce through artisanal, professional, and postgraduate training also increases employability of effected individuals in transversal industries. These approaches can only be successful if implemented early in one’s career so as to increase the chances of internalisation of the knowledge and skills, which in themselves are core determinants to building individual self-efficacy and the likelihood of entrepreneurial success. As SAIMM, we offer a wide variety of self-mastery and industry relevant CPD-accredited training courses, conferences, and webinars that can assist individuals to navigate the complex self-learning space. Self-learning through the various open access online platforms can also increase one’s ability to acquire new skills and adapt to shifting employment trends.

In conclusion, retrenchments and layoffs are very emotive issues. Thus, the purpose of my article is neither to take a moral position against retrenchments and layoffs, nor is it an attempt to glorify workforce reduction as a viable and moral corporate cost-cutting measure. Rather, the sole purpose of this article is to stimulate a healthy and constructive debate on how we can collectively navigate the complex needs for business continuity while mitigating the emotional and socio-economic impact on affected colleagues and communities.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Industrial policy: Key to unlocking beneficiation potential?

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Created: Wednesday, 05 March 2025 07:56

Written by E. Matinde

In one of my previous articles, I floated the idea that critical minerals can be key levers to industrial development, leading to substantive technological and economic catch-up. Although the role of mineral endowment in the technological and economic catch-up framework is vague and still poorly understood, there is no doubt that value addition and localisation of manufacturing value chains can have a long term impact on the economic well-being of resource-rich countries. The emphasis on industrial development means that the concept of technological and economic catch-up should not be viewed narrowly within the context of clean energy or just energy transition, but rather, from a broader industrialisation and technology upgrading point of view. The nexus between value-added manufacturing capabilities and industrial development has precipitated urgent calls for resource-rich countries to increase the level of beneficiation of mineral resources in host communities.

The view that Africa should focus on exporting processed products rather than raw commodities were echoed in various discussion forums at the recently concluded Mining Indaba 2025 held in Cape Town. The theme of this year’s indaba had an interesting vibe to it, with key discussions focusing on the requisite actions to secure the future of African mining, with specific emphasis on increasing investment confidence, policy stability, and on building collaborative partnerships that can lead to shared and tangible economic value. Judging by the intensity of messaging, there is obvious convergence among politicians, academia, and industry on the need to increase the levels of value addition and beneficiation in host communities. Public announcements by key industry and public figures also highlighted the need to promulgate policies that incentivises local beneficiation, with specific emphasis on fostering innovation and sustainability in the minerals industry. Despite the strong convergence on the need to maximise the value addition and beneficiation of mineral products, both industry and the public seem to hold diverging views on the implementation framework and way forward. For example, the focus by industry on the need for more incentives, tax breaks, infrastructure availability (such as electricity, rail, and port), and quality of skills, may be dichotomous to government priorities of focusing on industrialisation, socio-economic development, and employment creation for historically disadvantaged members of society. These diverging views and priorities naturally create challenges to the implementation of a holistic value addition and beneficiation strategy unless protracted effort is directed at developing and implementing an industrial policy and implementation strategy that caters for the needs of all the stakeholders in the industry.

Industrial policy can be defined in many ways. In principle, industrial policy refers to a deliberate government strategy to actively support and shape specific industries in economic sectors deemed crucial for competitiveness in the global arena. Depending on economic capacity and need, a government can use industrial policy tools and levers such as subsidies, tax breaks, trade protection, dedicated R&D funding, and preferential procurement, among others, to promote a sector-specific technological advancement and, ultimately, the overall industrial development and economic development. Using industrial policies and its levers to stimulate growth in a specific industry is not new and can be traced back to influential economists. One such example was Friedrich List (1789-1846), a German economist who, through his seminal nationalist theory of political economy, advocated for the need to use tariffs as a tool to protect fledgling industries. Recent examples of targeted industrial policies levers include China’s Made in China 2025 strategy, the United States’ CHIPS and Science Act 2022, Japan’s Monozukuri economic blueprint, and Germany’s Industrie 4.0, among others. For the African continent, the African Minerals Development Strategy promulgated by the African Union is a bold and ambitious strategy that has significant potential to promote the sustainable extraction, production, beneficiation, and commercialisation of Africa’s mineral resources.

While industrial policies and other statutory instruments can act as effective tools and levers to increase the local content of value-added manufacturing and services in the mining sector, their effectiveness is strongly dependent on a myriad of economic, social, technological, and political factors. If value-addition and beneficiation is a mission, then the industry needs mission-oriented industrial policies to drive innovation and technological upgrading in that specific industry. Instead of protectionism and tariffs as tools and policy levers, a clear strategic framework supported by bold strategies and incentive levers to encourage new players to integrate into the downstream beneficiation of mineral products is required. Similar to China’s deliberate support of new and strategic industries through the Made in China 2025 strategy, tangible results and impact can be achieved by supporting and incubating agile SMEs and SMMEs to drive the downstream industries. By supporting the so-called “little giants” in strategic industries (see details here https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/china-is-betting-big-on-its-little-giants/), the Chinese government deliberately considers smaller firms as valuable sources of innovation and basic force for improving the competitiveness of the value addition and beneficiation supply chain. Through strategic support, the state plays dual entrepreneurial and accelerator roles (an interesting analysis is available here: https://merics.org/en/report/accelerator-state-how-china-fosters-little-giant-companies), akin to building and supporting an Olympic sports team.

In conclusion, the dissonance arising from the current export of raw and unbeneficiated mineral commodities is understandable. However, there is a need for practical steps to increase the levels of value addition and beneficiation in host communities. A clear strategic framework supported by bold policies and incentive levers is required to integrate new entrants into the downstream beneficiation of mineral products. Akin to craftmanship, building a solid base of skills through high quality STEM graduates and industry PhDs is crucial to unlock the entrepreneurial potential of SMMEs and SMEs active in the downstream industries. R&D incentive levers and collaborations (local, regional, and international) are also required to unlock value from complex value chains.

In line with my quest for a deeper Socratic engagement, I am looking forward to further engagement on this complex subject.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Reigniting the research collaborations in the mining industry: too little, too late?

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Created: Wednesday, 12 February 2025 08:19

Written by E. Matinde

The global mining industry has experienced unprecedented challenges within the last few years. Some, if not most of the challenges affecting the industry are not new, however, the complexity of the prevailing global economic and geopolitical environments makes their navigation more challenging. Global disruptions such as capital scarcity, volatile commodity prices, climate change, resource and reserve depletion, cybersecurity and technological disruptions, and increasing exploration and operating costs, among others, will continue to significantly impact the profitability and sustainability of mining operations in many jurisdictions. Rapid technological changes will not only require deeper understanding of technological cycles but will also dictate agile adoption and implementation of state-of-the art technological solutions so as to minimise disruption. The emergence of new value chains driven by the clean energy transition, although presenting a net positive impact to the industry, will continue to create new operational requirements that require a deeper understanding of processes and technologies in order to build economically viable, safe, and socially responsible business models.

Obviously, the Southern African mining industry is not immune to these global challenges and dynamics. However, behind every obstacle lies an opportunity for growth. For example, the mining industry can leverage on the rapid advancements in technology to boost productivity and safety. Collaboration among the key stakeholders in the mining industry, such as leveraging on relationships involving industry, academia, and state-owned research institutions, can also unlock solutions to collective challenges that no one entity in the industry can solve on its own. Although this collaboration can take many forms, the implementation of multidisciplinary strategic research projects and programmes designed to strengthen capacity through postgraduate training and collaborative research programmes can significantly assist the industry to navigate operational challenges and uncertainty. If designed and managed properly, such collaborative platforms can lead to the successful development of new technologies and adoption of agile solutions and postgraduate training programmes that are accessible to all stakeholders in the industry.

Postgraduate training can involve many shapes and forms. Of particular interest, and perhaps the most relevant to the Southern African context, is the implementation of industry-based doctoral training and research programmes. Although the impact of doctoral recipients in most developing economies is a subject of intense debate, there is no doubt that doctoral training programmes create an ecosystem that enhances the capacity to adopt foreign technologies and develop own or endogenous innovations. Industry-focused doctoral training programmes (simply referred to as industry PhDs) are increasingly becoming popular globally. Such training programmes tend to be more practice oriented and are structured to allow the generation and application of advanced knowledge and skills directly in professional settings. In this case, the training programmes are designed to solve real-world problems faced by the mining industry and are carried out in close collaboration involving industry partners as the potential end-users of the solutions. The conception and development of research solutions in situ naturally increase the chances of developing new technologies, products, and processes that are relevant to the market.

Industry PhD training programmes can have a long-term net positive impact on the competitiveness of the mining industry by providing the flexibility to solve common challenges that no single entity has the capacity to solve on their own. Mining companies and/or service providers can have access to fresh perspectives from other research partners and gain timely access to cutting edge research results, thereby reducing the risks and time to implementation. The ability to share resources, infrastructure, and access to intra- and multi-disciplinary expertise increases the ability to develop robust solutions to the challenges faced by industry. The training programmes also present unparalleled benefits to researchers and doctoral students alike. In addition to providing access to shared research facilities and industry expertise, industry PhD training programmes provide the researchers with the opportunity to conduct relevant research that solves industry problems through an authentic community of practice. The ability to obtain hands-on research experience in an industry setting, including opportunities for secondment, also broadens career and employment opportunities for the doctoral recipients.

Although the benefits of proposed collaborative research programmes are obvious, the implementation can be challenging due to the need to address the myriad funding and legal issues. One typical approach to navigate the legal complexities, such as those of IP ownership, is to focus on non-IP specific research projects and topics designed to generate and disseminate knowledge in open access platforms. The implementation can be achieved by establishing a research advisory committee representing the various stakeholders, networks, and/or segments to identify the key industry challenges, conceptualize common and cross-cutting research topics, and to align and drive common purpose and strategic objectives. The role of the advisory committee also includes defining and establishing a clear and robust legal and governance framework to manage complex Research and Development contracts, including implementing a robust and yet flexible IP governance structure through collaborative research agreements. In addition to a well-structured legal framework to guide the strategic partnerships arising therefrom, it is also crucial to develop and sustain trust and interpersonal relationships among the key stakeholders. For state-owned research and academic institutions, developing and implementing the right policy levers are also critical success variables.

In conclusion, as the mining industry continues to face existential challenges, it is futile to assume that there can be a single entity that can solve such challenges on its own. Although there is no quintessential solution to the quantum and complex nature of some of the challenges, collaboration through industry-based doctoral training programmes can have sustained impact on the sector and broader economy. Research collaboration is a complex endeavour and, for this reason, the implementation thereof requires a collective approach by all the stakeholders.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Reflections on 2024: Resilience and hope

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Created: Wednesday, 11 December 2024 06:25

Written by E. Matinde

Over the past few weeks, I have asked a number of my colleagues in the mining industry about their sentiments on the current and future status of the mining industry in South Africa and the region. Although this exploratory exercise was not based on any specific scientific design, the responses were extremely diverse, ranging from extreme pessimism and despondency to excitement and hope. Obviously, the responses depended on specific factors such as geographical location, stage in one’s career and commodity of interest. Of course, I totally understand the sentiments of those who felt overwhelmed, despondent, and even despair in 2024. Despite the optimism at the beginning of the year, 2024 was a tough year for most mining companies, especially those affected by falling basket prices of commodities such as PGM, lithium, and nickel. I also understand the positive sentiment for those whose operations were backed by star commodity performers such as gold, copper, rare earths, and graphite.

The huge supply/demand deficit arising from supply outpacing demand for most, had a significant impact on the producer market prices. Despite commodities such as PGM (in particular, palladium), lithium, and nickel playing a critical role in the clean energy transition, overcapacity and oversupply in the market depressed the commodity prices, leading to mothballed mining projects, mine closures, and retrenchments. The industry also had to contend with capital scarcity, inflation-induced increase in operating costs, resources and reserve depletion, technological disruptions, geopolitics, and protectionism. The fractured geopolitical environment not only creates challenges to raising capital and acquiring cutting edge technologies, but also presents security of tenure and operation in the various mining jurisdictions. At first glance, the outlook in the Southern African mining industry appears grim. The depressed prices of major commodities paint a picture of an industry in decline, a sunset industry with limited growth opportunities. Although disturbing, these challenges provide opportunities for a mindset shift in the industry. All we need is a growth mindset that can turn the current obstacles into an opportunity to build resilience in our beloved industry.

We have a lot of reasons to celebrate. We are talking about an industry that is capable of reinventing itself, an industry that is capable of mobilizing the resources and stamina needed to spur sustainable economic growth. For optimists like me, who view the world through the glass half full lenses, our industry is just going through a metamorphic change and will emerge stronger and better, like the mythical phoenix bird. According to Greek mythology and analogues in many other cultures, a phoenix is an immortal bird that cyclically regenerates itself. Associated with the sun, the phoenix obtains new life by rising from the ashes of its predecessor, symbolizing hope, resurrection and renewal. Our mining once went through many devastating economic cycles and yet emerged stronger and more resilient, thanks to the clean energy transition that has presented numerous opportunities to the mining industry. The mining industry is at the core of the clean transition as a supplier of the raw materials needed to transition to a net-zero economy. In my October commentary, I highlighted how the emerging economic epoch, driven by critical metals and minerals, is an opportunity for industrialization through high value exports and localization of manufacturing value chains for clean energy technologies. These opportunities can only be realized if we are intentional about the desired impact.

As the year comes to an end, we find ourselves reflecting. The key message for 2024 is that it is not all doom and gloom. Like the mythical phoenix bird, our industry will rise and shine again. As we take time off to break for a much deserved holiday, we need to remain hopeful and reflect on how we can continue to grow our industry.

I wish everyone happy and safe holidays.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Reflections and Lessons Learnt From the 17th International Ferroalloys Congress (INFACON XVII)

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Created: Thursday, 28 November 2024 07:46

Written by E. Matinde

The 17th edition of the International Ferroalloys Congress (INFACON XVII), jointly organized and hosted by the University of Science and Technology Beijing (USTB), Chinese Society for Metals, and the China Ferroalloy Industry Association, took place from 18 to 22 September 2024 in Beijing, People’s Republic of China. The INFACON series, often dubbed the ‘Olympics of Ferroalloy Research’, is held once every three years, and provides a platform for the global ferroalloys industry to meet and showcase knowledge and technologies driving the industry. The congress series is organized by the International Committee on Ferroalloys (ICFA) and is supported by a team of dedicated international experts representing industry, applied research,
and academia. The conference papers published as part of the congress proceedings contribute to a rich and authoritative peer-reviewed body of knowledge in fundamental and applied ferroalloys research. This year’s congress comprised a variety of topics designed to address industry challenges and was centred around strategic themes such as:

• Fundamental knowledge and basic theory of ferroalloys production (e.g. thermodynamics, thermochemistry and process challenges).
• Climate change, environmental, sustainability, and social licence to operate, addressing the drive to decarbonization, climate neutrality and green transition (e.g. hydrogen/ hydrogen plasma reduction, use of biocarbons and other non-fossil reductants, carbon capture and utilization, and the like).
• Intelligent systems, incorporating computational modelling, automation, process control, and machine learning.
• Productivity and competitiveness (e.g. ability to utilize low grade ores and fines, stable furnace operation, prereduction, preheating, recycling and recovery of by-products, energy utilization and recovery).
• Markets and competitiveness, focusing on demand and supply, including in-depth analysis of growth drivers.
• Product quality control and its impact on downstream stainless steel production.
• Key technological and operational issues highlighted through case studies (e.g. slag properties, electrical controls, tap hole design, and optimized furnace operation).

The history of the INFACON series is especially fascinating and uniquely important to South Africa. The first edition, jointly organized by SAIMM, Mintek (formerly the National Institute of Metallurgy) and the Ferroalloys Producers’ Association (FAPA), was held in Johannesburg, South Africa in 1974. The chairperson of the first INFACON was none other than Dr R.E. ‘Robbie’ Robinson (1929-2016, MHDSRIP). Dr Robbinson was the President of SAIMM (1975-1976), Director of the (South African) Government Metallurgical Laboratory (GML) from 1961-1966, and Director General of the National Institute for Metallurgy (NIM) from 1966−1976. During this period, Dr Robinson was also instrumental in initiating university research group schemes involving the various university departments and Mintek. This year’s INFACON XVII edition marked the 50th anniversary of the conference series and it is by no coincidence that the conference was chaired by Prof. Rodney Trevor Jones, whose career and rich contribution to ferroalloys research is unparalleled globally. Ironically, Prof. Jones is a Past President of the SAIMM (2015−2016), an avid academic, a well respected mentor, and advisor in the industry. It is also important to note that, courtesy of the industry giants, South Africa, through Mintek, provides permanent secretariat to the international committee that arranges the INFACON events.

The INFACON XVII provided a nostalgic moment to reflect on both the demise and future of the ferroalloys industry in South Africa. The timing of the congress coincided with a period associated with fluctuations in the global prices of ferroalloys, leading to a decline in economic viability and competitiveness of most producers, including those in South Africa. Despite the availability of ores and long-term favourable international market conditions for stainless steel (with a compound annual growth rate of 5.3% since 1980), one would expect the installed capacity and capacity utilization of the South African ferroalloys producers to grow in line with the growth in the global stainless-steel market. However, the South African bulk ferroalloys industry gradually lost global competitiveness due to several factors, including the poor availability and increasing cost of electricity, ageing technologies, and a significant increase in the pricing of premium ores. These factors, among several others, have contributed to the precipitous decline of the ferroalloys industry in the past decade, resulting in the closure and mothballing of numerous smelters. The export of unbeneficiated raw ores, precipitated by the growth in demand from China, resulted in the emergence of a thriving export industry for raw or unbeneficiated ores at the demise of local value addition and beneficiation. To South Africa and the region, the 17th edition of the International Ferroalloys Congress thus coincides with the emergence of robust debate on how to revive and resuscitate the ferroalloys industry. The current state of the ferroalloys industry invariably presents both challenges and opportunities.
The vibrant discussions during the course of INFACON XVII were extremely fulfilling but naturally raised a number of open questions:

• Was China’s growth in the ferroalloys a result of deliberate investment in state-of-the-art technologies or simply state support as often alluded to in international media?
• Was the growth in Chinese ferroalloys production at the demise of the South African industry despite the former relying on imported ores from South Africa?
• What can the South African ferroalloys industry learn from their Chinese counterparts? Would the industry players from both sides be open to participating in jointly funded collaboration projects and programmes?
• Would a joint South Africa-China dialogue on ferroalloys research be a feasible vehicle to share knowledge, ideas, and technical expertise?
• Industry stoics, such as Prof. Robbie Robinson, were strong believers in collaborative research involving industry, academia, research councils, and other stakeholders. Would the conception and implementation of strategic research programmes help to alleviate the further demise of the local ferroalloys industry?
• Given the fragmentation of the local ferroalloys industry, is it a far-fetched dream to think of resuscitating Professor Robinson’s thinking and strategy towards building and sustaining scientific expertise in the industry?
• What role can research and industry organizations, such as Mintek and Ferro Alloy Producers Association (FAPA), respectively, play in developing a long-term research and development strategy leading to the revival of the ferroalloys industry in South Africa?

Obviously, these open-ended questions are not conclusive but are meant to stimulate debate and new thinking that could result in the revival of the local ferroalloys industry. The various INFACON editions provide a knowledge exchange platform and mechanism through which bilateral and multilateral collaborations are developed and sustained with the goal of developing and deepening human capital capabilities for South Africa. The collaboration and partnerships with international research institutions and industry also ensure that fit-for-purpose technologies and flowsheets are developed, leading to localization and adoption of global technologies in the local industry.

The next INFACON takes place in the scenic city of Reykjavik in Iceland in June/July 2027.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

Critical raw materials result in substantive technological and economic catch-up for the global south: Setting the scene for a deeper Socratic dialogue

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Created: Wednesday, 06 November 2024 06:54

Written by E. Matinde

The debate on sustainable economic development is increasingly focused on the widescale deployment of carbon neutral energy sources to drive the future energy systems. Renewable energy technologies such as hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, fuel cells and bioenergy, among others, are indispensable to mitigating the impact of anthropogenic global warming while concurrently addressing the energy poverty faced by many countries in the global south. The transition to clean energy generation and storage systems is metal and mineral intensive and will require a substantive but sustainable supply of many of these critical metals and minerals. For example, metals and minerals such as lithium (Li), nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), and graphite are irreplaceable in battery energy storage systems while rare earth metals are critical in the manufacture of high-performance magnets needed for wind turbines and electric vehicles. Likewise, industrial metals such as aluminium (Al) and copper (Cu) are irreplaceable in electricity generation and distribution systems. According to the International Energy Association (2021), electric vehicles require approximately 53 kg Cu, 9 kg Li, 40 kg, 25 kg Mn, 13k g Co, and 66 kg graphite per vehicle, compared to 22 kg Cu and 11 kg Mn in conventional vehicles. In the Minerals for Climate Action report (Hund et al. 2020) compiled by the World Bank Group, it is estimated that the production of critical raw materials (CRMs), such as graphite, lithium and cobalt, will increase by 500% by 2050 to meet the growing demand for clean energy technologies. This giganteum increase in demand in CRMs will create unprecedent opportunities for industrialization to resource-rich countries through exports and localization of value-added manufacturing activities.

Similar to a lot of other countries in the global south, Southern African states are either least developed or middle-income countries with ambitions to escape the poverty trap and catch up with more advanced economies. Contrary to these long-held ambitions to upgrade their economies, the GDP for most countries in sub-Saharan Africa has contracted over a protracted period of time and continue to face unprecedented challenges in transitioning from an economy driven by the exports of low value mineral commodities to manufacturing and knowledge driven economies. Being high value and high impact, clean energy technologies naturally present windows of opportunity for technological and economic upgrading to resource-rich countries such as South Africa. Although often associated with high risk and a high degree of uncertainty, clean energy technologies are characterized by high radical novelty, fast growth, and relatively high economic impact, with significant potential in creating new industries and/or transforming existing ones (Rotolo et al. 2015). There is indisputable evidence that, if managed properly, emerging technologies can indeed result in sustained technological and economic growth, and ultimately, lead to economic catch-up by the countries in the global south.

Economic scholars define ‘catch-up’ as a process by which a developing country narrows the income gap (‘economic catch-up’) and increases its technological capabilities (‘technological catch-up’) relative to frontier countries (Lee, 2013; Lee, 2019). When combined, technological and economic catch-up thus refers to the ability of a developing economy to grow faster compared to frontier economies and eventually reaching similar levels of technological capabilities and per capita income. Thus, in order to reduce the technological and income gaps relative to frontier economies, developing economies must attain and sustain both technological capabilities and income growth more rapidly than the advanced economies. Technological catch-up, which itself is a function of the specific technological strategies adopted as part of the growth strategy, logically precedes economic catch-up. Although ‘technological catch-up’ and ‘economic catch-up’ are not identical, they are closely related to each other in such a way that technological catch-up precedes or leads to market or economic catch-up (Lee, 2013).

Two main models have been proposed to explain catch-up trajectories, namely, path-following (also known as flying geese) catch-up, and leapfrogging catch-up, with the latter form occurring following a stage-skipping or path-creating strategy (Lee, 2013; Lee, 2019). The path following catch-up is a linear and cumulative process whereby the latecomer follows the same technological trajectories taken by frontrunners. In this case, the latecomer moves along the same path, but faster by taking advantage of historical factors such as the maturity, declining costs, and ubiquity of technologies and technical knowledge (Lee, 2013). The leapfrogging model is more complex and occurs when a latecomer bypasses traditional stages of development to either jump directly to the latest technologies (stage-skipping) or explore an alternative path of technological development involving emerging technologies with new benefits and opportunities (path-creating) (Lee, 2019; Yayboke et al. 2020). This form of catch-up often occurs when technologies are shifting towards new technological trajectories, which allow the latecomers to reduce the technological gaps by skipping the older generations to adopt the next generation and cost-efficient technologies. This may, however, depend on a number of factors, such as market availability, cost of next generation of technologies, and/or the willingness of incumbents to share their proprietary technologies (Lee, 2013; Lee, 2019; Yayboke et al. 2020).

Regardless of the leapfrogging model adopted, the ability to catch up is dependent on the windows of opportunity arising from the emergence of new technoeconomic paradigms (Perez and Soete, 1988; Lee and Malerba, 2017). The emergence of radically new technologies, for example, offers latecomers the window of opportunity to leapfrog the incumbents whose technological capabilities and investments are locked into older technologies, limiting their agility to mitigate against the destructive potential of new technologies and products. In contrast, latecomers are able to leapfrog older technologies, bypass sunk investments in previous technology systems, and adapt new and emerging technologies to assume control of markets and thus outcompete the incumbents (Lee and Malerba, 2017). Shorter cycle technologies also present windows of opportunity to latecomers by reducing reliance on old and existing knowledge bases characteristic of longer cycle, often capital-intensive technologies, often dominated by incumbents (Lee, 2013). Complimentary to emerging and shorter cycle technologies, radical changes in demand conditions, business cycles, and/or abrupt changes in markets, such as those presented by the clean energy transition, also increase the ability of agile latecomers to enter new markets, catch up, and leapfrog the incumbents (Lee and Malerba, 2017). The success to catch-up by leapfrogging also depends on the regulatory and institutional framework. Most importantly, deliberate government policies through strategic mission-oriented industrial policies and R&D programs can shape the rate of innovations and accumulation of technological capabilities by domestic firms (Mazzucato, 2018).

Obviously, the ability to catch up is not a free ride, but rather, depends on a number of deliberate efforts and strategic interventions. The answer to sustained catch-up and growth lies in the ability to build technological capabilities, which in this context, can be defined as the ability to effectively assimilate, use new and existing knowledge to create new technologies, products and processes, and to acquire and commercially exploit new knowledge and skills (Lee, 2013). Purposive efforts to build technological capabilities at macro-scale can thus significantly increase the national absorptive capacity to assimilate technologies and knowledge developed by frontier economies (Kinoshita, 2000). Although the importance of national absorptive capacity in technology transfer is widely accepted, very few case studies are available to demonstrate its linkage to sustained technological and economic upgrading in most resource-based economies.

To conclude, the vast majority of literature and policy statements clearly articulate the high technological and economic importance of critical raw materials to the clean energy transition. Most notably, the emerging discourse on net zero transition has mostly focused on the critical roles of resource-rich countries from the global south derisking supply chains for these critical raw materials, which in my view, would only function to exacerbate the current ‘pit to port extractivist’ strategies being employed by most developing economies. In my mind, there is no doubt that the clean energy transition presents windows of opportunity for technological upgrading and industrialization through localization of value-added manufacturing activities. These issues definitely warrant further debate, and it is prudent to explore the macro-level linkages and challenges, and most importantly, the potential industrial policy tools available to increase the localization of manufacturing capabilities by resource-rich countries.

E. Matinde
President, SAIMM

References
Hund, K., La Porta, D., Fabregas, T.P., Laing, T., Drexhage J. 2020. Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. The World Bank. https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/961711588875536384/Minerals-for-Climate-Action-The-Mineral-Intensity-of-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pdf

International Energy Association. 2021. The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transition. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary

Kinoshita, Y. 2000. R&D and technology spillovers via FDI: Innovation and absorptive capacity. CERGE-EI Working Paper Series No. 163. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=258194

Lee, K. 2013. Schumpeterian analysis of economic catch-up: Knowledge, path-creation, and the middle-income trap. Cambridge University Press, UK, pp 3-37.

Lee, K., Malerba, F. 2017. Catch-up cycles and changes in industrial leadership: Windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems. Research Policy, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 338-351.

Lee, K. 2019. The economics of technological leapfrogging. UNIDO Department of Policy Research and Statistics Working Paper Series WP 17/2019, United Nations Industrial Development Organisation. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3549420

Mazzucato, M. 2018. Mission-oriented innovation policies: Challenges and opportunities. Industrial and Corporate Change, vol. 27, no.5, pp. 803-815.

Perez, C., Soete, L. 1988. Catching up in technology: entry barriers and windows of opportunity. Dosi, G., Freeman, C., Nelson, R., Silverberg, G. & Soete, L. (Editors), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter Publishers, London, pp 458-479.

Rotolo, D., Hicks, D., Martin B.R. 2015. What is an emerging technology? Research Policy vol. 44, no. 10, pp. 1827-1843.

Yayboke, E., Crumpler, W., Carter, W.A. 2020. The promise of leapfrogging. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/need-leapfrog-strategy